Overnight US Stocks: CPI Beats Expectations, Major Indices Fall, But Golden Dragon Index Rises
On Thursday, the three major indices closed lower as the U.S. September CPI rose more than expected both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a pause in the recent process of easing price pressures. The Atlanta Federal Reserve President expressed openness to not cutting interest rates in November.
**U.S. Stocks**: By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 57.88 points, or 0.14%, to 42,454.12; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 9.57 points, or 0.05%, to 18,282.05; the S&P 500 index declined 11.99 points, or 0.21%, to 5,780.05. Nvidia (NVDA.US) rose 1.6%, while Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) surged 17%. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.3%, with Alibaba (BABA.US) gaining 1% and Li Auto (LI.US) falling 3.7%.
**European Stocks**: The German DAX 30 index fell 48.37 points, or 0.25%, to 19,209.35; the UK's FTSE 100 index dropped 5.06 points, or 0.06%, to 8,238.68; the French CAC 40 index decreased by 18.50 points, or 0.24%, to 7,541.59; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 12.02 points, or 0.24%, to 4,970.55; the Spanish IBEX 35 index lost 83.80 points, or 0.71%, to 11,657.70; the Italian FTSE MIB index advanced 144.97 points, or 0.43%, to 34,078.00.
**Asia-Pacific Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index gained 0.26%, while the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia fell 0.28%, and Vietnam's VN30 index rose 0.64%.
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**Cryptocurrencies**: Bitcoin fell over 1%, trading at $63,126.5 per coin; Ethereum increased by 0.15%,报价 at $2,381.95 per coin.
**Gold**: COMEX gold futures closed up 0.81%, at $2,647.3 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 2.1%, at $31.375 per ounce.
**Oil**: U.S. crude oil futures prices closed about 3.6% higher on Thursday, reversing the previous two consecutive trading days of losses. The market continues to focus on geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospects for increasing crude oil demand from China and the U.S. On Thursday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for November delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.61, or 3.56%, to settle at $75.85 per barrel.
**Metals**: London metals rose, with nickel up 0.29%, copper up 0.5%, aluminum up over 1.8%, and zinc up over 2%.
**Macro News**:
U.S. CPI increases across the board exceeded expectations, with inflation progress stalling. According to foreign media reports, the overall inflation rate in the U.S. for September was higher than expected, indicating a pause in the recent process of easing price pressures. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both higher than expected. Economists believe that the core indicator better reflects underlying inflation than the overall CPI. The higher-than-expected inflation data, coupled with last week's strong U.S. non-farm employment report, may intensify the debate over whether the Federal Reserve will opt for a small interest rate cut next month or pause after a significant cut in September. Traders believe that there is a higher likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Despite strong data, inflation is largely on a downward trend. The PCE indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has been moving closer to the Fed's 2% target.The number of initial jobless claims in the United States hit a one-year high last week. The number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week rose to the highest level in over a year, reflecting a weak labor market, partly due to a significant increase in unemployment benefit applications in Michigan and the impact of Hurricane Helen on some states. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that for the week ending October 5th, the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits increased by 33,000, bringing the total to 258,000, the highest level since August 2023. Economists surveyed had forecast a median of 230,000. The report also indicated that the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to 1.86 million for the week ending September 28th.
Federal Reserve's Bostic is open to not cutting rates in November. Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic said on Thursday that, based on the economic outlook, he believes it is reasonable to cut rates at both of the remaining two meetings this year or at one of them, but the recent mixed data suggests that "maybe we should pause rate cuts in November. I am absolutely open to this. If the data plays out as I expect, I am willing to take no action at one of the last two meetings." Bostic said, "I think we have the ability to wait patiently and let things develop for a while longer. I think some of the content in today's CPI report confirms this view." Bostic also said that he had long expected economic data to fluctuate monthly, which could complicate the identification of underlying trends. However, the latest data did not change his expectation that the Fed will need to undertake a series of rate cuts next year: "I have been saying that we should expect data to fluctuate - I have been using the word 'volatile'. We may receive volatile reports from time to time. But the question is, do they herald a new trend?" Bostic estimates that the so-called neutral rate, the rate that neither stimulates nor slows economic growth, is between 3% and 3.5%, and he expects rates to fall close to this level next year. "It's a journey towards neutrality, with the nuances being that you move 25 basis points here and 50 basis points there, and I don't think these are very important."
The Fed's "third in command" speaks: Advocates gradual rate cuts to neutral to help achieve a win-win for inflation and employment. New York Fed Chairman John Williams recently said that, given the better balance of risks to achieving inflation and employment targets, policymakers should "over time" reduce rates to a more neutral level. On Thursday (October 10th) local time, the New York Fed posted Williams' speech on its official website. Williams said at an event at Binghamton University that he believes U.S. inflation is moving towards the central bank's 2% target. Williams said that the labor market has cooled somewhat over the past year but remains robust, which should provide the Fed with room to adjust rates to a level that "neither puts pressure on the economy nor stimulates it." "Looking ahead, based on my current economic forecast, I expect that, over time, it will be appropriate to continue the process of shifting monetary policy towards a more neutral stance. Shifting towards a more neutral monetary policy stance as progress is made towards the price stability target will help maintain a strong economy and labor market."

Affected by Hurricane "Milton", some gas stations in Florida run out of fuel. Due to Hurricane "Milton", some gas stations in parts of Florida are unable to get supplies. According to data from the fuel tracking platform GasBuddy, as of 10:30 AM Eastern Time on the 10th, about 24.8% of gas stations in Florida have run out of fuel. It is reported that in some areas severely affected by the disaster, the situation of gas station fuel shortages is even more serious. The governor of Florida said on the morning of the 10th that officials are working hard to ensure that fuel supplies are restored as soon as possible. In addition, "Milton" caused major water pipes to burst, and some areas of Florida have issued notices reminding residents to boil drinking water.
[Stock News]
AMD (AMD.US) launches a challenge to Nvidia's AI chip. AMD announced plans to begin mass production of the new MI325X artificial intelligence chip in the fourth quarter of this year to enhance its competitiveness in a market dominated by Nvidia (NVDA.US). The company announced this at an event in San Francisco on Thursday, with large technology companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Meta (META.US) currently experiencing a significant excess demand for artificial intelligence processors over supply. AMD said that the MI325X uses the same architecture as the MI300X launched last year and is equipped with a new memory technology that can improve AI computing speed. This chip is designed to compete with Nvidia's Blackwell architecture. The MI325X chip is equipped with up to 256GB of HBM3E memory, an increase of 64GB from the MI300X, with bandwidth increased from 5.3TB/s to 6TB/s, and the core architecture remains unchanged, including a 5nm XCD module, a 6nm IOD module, a 3.5D package, 153 billion transistors, and 304 computing units. Notably, the MI325X has a power consumption of 1000W, an increase of 750W compared to the MI320X. The MI325X also supports parallel operation of eight chips, forming a powerful platform with 2TB of HBM3E memory and 48TB/s of bandwidth.