As expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut significantly cooled due to the sizzling non-farm payroll data and CPI that exceeded expectations, the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate, which had been trending downward not long ago, has risen for two consecutive weeks to its highest level since early September.

Freddie Mac, a giant in mortgage financing sponsored by the U.S. government, stated in a release on Thursday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States climbed to 6.32%, up from the 6.12% indicated last week. The agency also noted that this mortgage rate data marks the largest single-week increase since April.

In the United States, the cost of various types of borrowing is anchored to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is known as the "anchor of global asset pricing." As the 10-year Treasury yield rises, so does the cost of borrowing. However, because mortgages often involve longer terms and higher credit risks, banks add an additional interest rate premium on top of the 10-year Treasury yield. The calculation basis varies among different banks, which means that the specific figures for the 10-year Treasury yield and longer-term mortgage rates will not be perfectly synchronized, but the general direction and magnitude of changes are essentially aligned.

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Statistical data shows that after the incredibly strong non-farm payroll data released last Friday spurred traders to reduce expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4% this week. On Thursday, as the year-over-year and month-over-month inflation rates for the previous month both exceeded market expectations, it increased traders' bets on the Federal Reserve choosing a smaller, normalized 25 basis point rate cut in November, rather than continuing to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut.

There is even a small group of interest rate futures traders betting that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in November or December due to inflation cooling down or the labor market being too strong to stimulate a surge in inflation expectations. According to the "FedWatch Tool" of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), during the period on Monday when U.S. Treasury prices fell across the board due to rate cut expectations, the probability of the Federal Reserve standing pat next month jumped from 2.6% on Friday to 16%, and it is now around 10%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has almost disappeared.

Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Sam Khater stated in the latest release: "The rise in mortgage rates is primarily due to changes in expectations for the benchmark interest rate, not the underlying U.S. economy, which has been strong for most of the year without significant changes." "Although higher long-term mortgage rates make the affordability of some U.S. consumers seeking long-term loans more challenging, they demonstrate economic strength and may continue to support the recovery process of the U.S. housing market."

According to a recent analysis report by Realtor.com, about 84% of U.S. long-term mortgage rates are currently at 6% or lower. Borrowers who have been waiting for costs to fall below this important level before listing their homes for sale and then attempting to purchase new homes, as well as potential first-time homebuyers seeking stronger affordability, may now find reason to hesitate longer in waiting for mortgage rates to decline, especially considering the latest Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate dot plot, which suggests that the Federal Reserve's rate cut for this cycle may exceed 200 basis points by the end of next year.

However, according to Melissa Cohen, Regional Vice President of William Raveis Mortgage, for a large potential group of U.S. buyers who urgently need a home, now may be a good time to take action, as more favorable rates may not be achieved quickly in the short term.

"This is a wake-up call, telling you: don't follow the majority; you'd better find a house you want to buy first, and then address rate concerns through other avenues," she said in an interview. "You can't wait for a rate that may never exist, and the increased demand for housing due to lower rates could significantly push up housing prices, leading to the exact opposite effect of what was expected."