Preface

With the conclusion of the National Day holiday, the domestic refined oil products have ushered in a window period for price increases.

During this year's National Day holiday, the prices of gasoline and diesel in our country actually experienced a decrease.

So far this year, the price of oil in our country has undergone a significant decline. Compared to the beginning of the year, the current oil prices have reached a new low, which has alleviated the economic pressure on residents traveling by car.

However, international oil prices have shown an upward trend, and geopolitical conflicts are increasing. This makes it seem highly likely that the increase in our country's oil prices this time will exceed expectations.

So, what kind of changes will the oil prices undergo this time?

Oil Price Adjustment Situation.

During the National Day holiday, news of oil price adjustments also came out one after another.

In this domestic refined oil product adjustment, the oil prices were reduced. This is the 19th oil price adjustment in 2023. According to the measures of this oil price adjustment, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 365 yuan and 350 yuan per ton, respectively.

Advertisement

Based on this price calculation, filling up a 100-liter fuel tank during the National Day holiday would result in a reduction of nearly 8.5 yuan in expenditure.The domestic refined oil situation in China in 2023 can be described as a rollercoaster, with the third quarter oil prices experiencing "4 declines, 1 increase, and 1 stagnation." As of September 30th, the price of gasoline and diesel in China had decreased by 805 yuan and 760 yuan per ton, respectively.

Due to this, residents traveling by car during the National Day holiday can enjoy tangible benefits.

According to analysis by relevant institutions, the current crude oil market situation is very complex. Although the OPEC+ countries have made efforts to reduce production in an attempt to stabilize crude oil prices, the impact of geopolitical factors cannot be ignored.

This also determines that crude oil prices are unlikely to rise significantly.

Looking at the trend of oil prices in 2023, the domestic oil prices in the third quarter experienced "4 declines and 1 increase." Due to the sharp drop in international oil prices in mid-to-late September, the decline in this round of oil prices is larger than in the past. Moreover, domestic oil prices have followed the sharp drop in international oil prices, and the reduction has exceeded expectations.

The adjustment of domestic oil prices is also in full swing, and it is expected that the 20th adjustment of oil prices will take place on October 10th. What changes will this oil price undergo?

Due to the rise in international oil prices and the improvement of US economic data, it is possible that China's oil prices will face an upward trend this time.

Especially on September 27th, when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they would reduce production, this undoubtedly brought good news to the crude oil market.

Reasons for the rise in oil prices.

The rise in international oil prices is primarily due to the agreement reached by Saudi Arabia and Russia on September 27th to continue reducing production. This has made the international market concerned about the supply of crude oil, pouring oil on the fire and causing a significant increase in oil prices.Next is the improvement of domestic economic data in the United States, which indicates that the difficulty of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates has increased.

On September 15th, the data released by the United States showed that the U.S. economy was in a state of growth in domestic consumption in August, and retail sales also reached the highest growth rate in August.

This indicates that the U.S. economic state is warming up, reflecting the strong U.S. economy, good economic development, so the U.S. stock market also rose after the news was released.

At the same time, the recovery of the U.S. economy will increase the demand for energy. As the saying goes, the greater the demand, the higher the price.

This promotes the rebound of international oil prices, so the good economic development state of the United States has played a positive role in the rise of international oil prices.

However, although international oil prices rose on September 27th, the impact of geopolitical conflicts caused oil prices to decline on September 30th.

But on October 1st, oil prices began to rise slowly, with U.S. oil prices rising to $74.35 per barrel, and Brent oil prices rising to $78.05 per barrel.

Due to the possibility of escalation in the current situation in Ukraine and Israel, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate.

With the arrival of October, the market also began to speculate on the adjustment of local oil prices. According to the rise in international oil prices, domestic oil prices will rise more than expected in this adjustment, and oil prices will rise by more than 500 yuan per ton.

Summarize the trend of rising oil prices.During the National Day holiday period, the price of oil in our country had already been adjusted before the holiday, which also reduced the travel costs for many residents during the holiday.

The price of oil rose again after the holiday, which inevitably made people curious about how much the price of oil would rise this time.

According to the current trend of international oil prices, there may be a significant increase when domestic oil prices are adjusted.

The improvement of the U.S. economic data this time is conducive to the increase of domestic oil prices, which also reflects that the U.S. economy is currently recovering and has a certain impact on the adjustment of our country's oil prices.

In the current complex and changeable international situation, the price of oil in our country is also affected by the fluctuations of international oil prices.

Conclusion

In the international market, the price of crude oil is influenced by many factors, which also makes our country need to consider more factors when adjusting oil prices, and adjust the oil prices in time according to the market situation to ensure the stability of the domestic refined oil market.

During this period, our country has also issued relevant measures for oil price adjustment to ensure the fairness and rationality of the market and avoid the adverse effects of oil price instability on the market.