U.S. inflation for September exceeded expectations across the board, with the overall CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, higher than market forecasts. The core CPI also rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing expectations. However, the nominal CPI year-on-year increase was the lowest in three and a half years. The U.S. labor market slowed down, with the number of initial jobless claims last week surging to 258,000, unexpectedly reaching the highest level in over a year.

Several high-ranking Federal Reserve officials stated they were not concerned about the September CPI. The third-ranking official, New York Fed Chairman Williams, said that the downward trend in inflation remains quite solid. Next year's voting member, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee, is not too worried about the September CPI being higher than expected. Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin expressed increasing confidence in controlled inflation.

These remarks led the market to be less concerned about inflation exceeding expectations and more focused on the labor market. As a result, bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in November increased from 80.3% to 86.9%, with 46 basis points expected to be cut for the remainder of 2024. However, this year's voting member, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic, took a hawkish stance, saying he would not object to pausing rate cuts in November. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 6 basis points at one point, while the 10-year yield rose by more than 6 basis points during the session, breaking through 4.10% to a ten-week high.

Advertisement

The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem, supporting a rise in precious metals. Spot gold rose nearly 1%, ending a six-day losing streak, while spot silver rose by more than 2.2%, ending a three-day losing streak. The CPI weighed on U.S. stocks, with small-cap indices, which are more sensitive to the economic cycle, leading the decline.

U.S. stocks opened lower, attempted to turn positive at midday, and then closed lower again. Small-cap indices, sensitive to interest rate policies, fell by 1% at their worst, with the Dow and S&P indices moving away from their historical highs. The real estate, communication services, and consumer staples sectors led the declines, while only the energy, materials, and technology sectors rose. The China concept index fell by more than 0.8% at the start of trading before turning positive, rising by 1.5% at one point:

U.S. stock indices fell across the board. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.21% at 5,780.05 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, closed down 57.88 points or 0.14% at 42,454.12 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq closed down 0.05% at 18,282.05 points. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed up 0.036%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed down 0.55%. The VIX volatility index closed unchanged at 20.86.

U.S. stocks fell across the board, with small-cap stocks experiencing the largest decline.

Most industry ETFs closed lower. The energy sector ETF rose 0.68%, while the global airline industry ETF and the internet stock index ETF each rose by less than 0.5%. In contrast, the discretionary consumer ETF, consumer staples ETF, healthcare ETF, global technology stock ETF, financial industry ETF, and utility ETF all fell by at least 0.3%.

Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index fell. The energy sector closed up 0.79%, the materials sector closed up 0.21%, the technology sector rose 0.08%, the discretionary consumer sector fell 0.26%, the healthcare sector fell 0.35%, the industrial sector fell 0.54%, the financial sector fell 0.32%, the consumer staples sector fell 0.54%, the utility sector fell 0.31%, the communication services sector fell 0.61%, and the real estate sector fell 0.89%.The "Tech Seven Sisters" saw more declines than gains. Nvidia closed up by 1.63%, Amazon closed up by 0.80%, and Google A closed up by 0.22%. Meanwhile, Apple closed down by 0.22%, Microsoft closed down by 0.39%, Tesla closed down by 0.95% after a 3.6% drop before the release of its robotaxi, and Meta closed down by 1.15%.

Most chip stocks fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down by 0.53%, the industry ETF SOXX closed down by 0.7%, and the Nvidia double-long ETF closed up by 3.26%. TSMC ADR closed down by 0.73%. Broadcom closed down by 0.14%, Intel closed down by 1.02%, KLA closed down by 0.83%, Qualcomm closed down by 1%, ASML ADR closed down by 1.41%, AMD closed down by 4% after falling more than 5%, launching the MI325X AI accelerator, claiming to outperform Nvidia, but its stock price rose and then fell, while Micron Technology closed up by 3.92%, and Arm Holdings closed up by 0.61%.

AI concept stocks were mixed. BullFrog AI closed up by 0.4%, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, closed up by 4.54%, Snowflake closed up by 3.44%, C3.ai closed up by 0.5%, Dell Technologies closed up by 2.01%, CrowdStrike closed up by 5.56%, Palantir closed up by 0.9%, while Super Micro Computer closed down by 1.73%. Serve Robotics closed down by 6.93%, BigBear.ai closed down by 2.6%, and Oracle closed down by 1.39%.

Chinese concept stocks rebounded against the market. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up by 0.3%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down by 1.62%, the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed up by 0.23%, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed up by 3.45%, the FTSE China 3x Short ETF (YANG) closed down by 3.28%, the "China Dragon" ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) closed up by 1.06%, the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 50 (ASHS) closed down by 0.47%, and the Deutsche Bank Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF (ASHR) closed up by 1.16%. The FTSE A50 futures night session closed up by 0.66%, reporting 13,975.00 points, with a peak increase of 1.3% during the session.

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Fangdd closed down by 30.68%, Li Auto closed down by 3.76%, Bilibili closed down by 2.48%, Zeekr closed down by 2.35%, Tiger Brokers closed down by 2.05%, NetEase closed down by 1.12%, NIO closed down by 1.11%, Tencent Holdings ADR closed down by 0.72%, Mengniu Dairy ADR closed down by 0.68%, Vipshop closed down by 0.54%, while Baidu closed up by 0.01%, Alibaba closed up by 1.29%, JD.com closed up by 0.89%, New Oriental closed up by 0.44%, Pinduoduo closed up by 0.08%, XPeng Motors closed up by 0.88%, Meituan ADR closed up by 2.7%, and Ctrip.com closed up by 2.29%.

Among other key stocks: (1) Domino's Pizza closed down by 1.08%, with the company's revenue growth not meeting expectations, but earnings per share exceeding expectations. (2) Delta Air Lines closed down by 1.06% after falling more than 3% in the US stock market, with the company's third-quarter financial report not meeting expectations and poor fourth-quarter revenue guidance.

European stocks opened high and closed low, with only the Italian stock index closing up. Affected by Hurricane Milton landing in Florida, insurance stocks rose by more than 1.06%, while technology stocks fell by 1%, and automotive stocks were also under pressure due to increased competition. GlaxoSmithKline reached a $2.2 billion settlement agreement in the Zantac case, with its stock price rising by more than 3%:

The European STOXX 600 Index closed down by 0.18%, reporting 519.11 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed down by 0.25%. BMW's global deliveries in the third quarter decreased by 13% year-on-year. Mercedes-Benz's global sales in the third quarter decreased by 3% year-on-year.

The German DAX 30 Index closed down by 0.25%. The French CAC 40 Index closed down by 0.42%. The Italian FTSE MIB Index closed up by 0.43%. The British FTSE 100 Index closed down by 0.06%. The Spanish IBEX 35 Index closed down by 0.72%.Due to the overall CPI and core CPI for September exceeding expectations, coupled with this year's voting member and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic's willingness to pause rate cuts, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a ten-week high of over 4.10% during trading:

U.S. Treasuries: At the close, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 4.96 basis points to 3.9719%, trading within the range of 3.9489%-4.0914%. The 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield rose by 0.20 basis points to 4.0746%, trading within the range of 4.0471%-4.1158%.

Regan Capital's Chief Investment Officer, Skyler Weinand, stated that the stance of Federal Reserve officials indicates that they are willing to allow inflation to run higher than normal levels in order to achieve full employment. Only an inflation rate reaching 4% or several consecutive inflation reports that are excessively high would alter the Fed's policy of continuing rate cuts next year.

European Debt: At the close, the benchmark 10-year German bund yield fell by 0.1 basis points to 2.256%. The two-year German bund yield fell by 2.7 basis points. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose by 3.0 basis points, while the two-year UK gilt yield fell by 0.2 basis points. The 30-year UK government bond yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.78%, the highest level since May.

U.S. Treasury performance was mixed, with short-term U.S. Treasury prices rising and long-term U.S. Treasuries falling.

Expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut heated up, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.06% after U.S. stock market hours, bidding farewell to a nearly eight-week high, with the Japanese yen and offshore renminbi rising, the euro falling to its lowest since August 8, the pound at a one-month low, and Bitcoin falling by more than 2%, breaking below the $60,000 mark:

Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.06%, reporting 102.862 points, with intraday trading ranging from 102.720 to 103.178 points.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.05%, reporting 1243.84 points, with intraday trading ranging from 1242.07 to 1246.87 points.

Non-U.S. currencies fluctuated: the euro fell by 0.02% against the dollar, the pound fell by 0.9% against the dollar, and the dollar fell by 0.53% against the Swiss franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.33% against the dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.49% against the dollar, and the Canadian dollar rose by 0.22% against the dollar. As traders bet on the European Central Bank cutting rates next week, the options market indicates that the euro may have its worst weekly performance since July.

Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen rose by 0.49% against the dollar, reporting 148.57 yen, with intraday trading ranging from 149.55 to 148.30 yen. The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan stated that if the economic and inflation performance aligns with the outlook, rate hikes will continue accordingly.Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi appreciated by 78 points against the US dollar, closing at 7.0849 yuan, with overall trading ranging from 7.0955 to 7.0683 yuan.

Cryptocurrencies mostly declined: The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, fell by 2.14% at the close, trading at 59,805.00 USD, with trading ranging from 58,945.00 to 61,450.00 USD. The second-largest, Ethereum, fell by 2.29% at the close, trading at 2,367.50 USD, with trading ranging from 2,332.00 to 2,426.00 USD.

Bitcoin broke below the $60,000 mark.

Affected by tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane "Milton," oil prices surged by over 3.5%, ending two consecutive days of decline:

WTI Crude Oil: The November WTI crude oil futures closed up by 2.61 USD, a 3.56% increase, at 75.85 USD per barrel. WTI continued to rise after closing, with the highest increase nearing 4.1%, reaching over 76.20 USD.

Brent Crude Oil: The December Brent crude oil futures closed up by 2.82 USD, a 3.68% increase, at 79.40 USD per barrel. Brent continued to climb, with the highest increase exceeding 4.1%, reaching over 79.70 USD at the end of the day.

In terms of news: Hurricane "Milton" swept through Florida, USA, causing fuel shortages at about a quarter of local gas stations and power outages affecting over 3.4 million households and businesses. Analysts from the energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates stated that widespread power outages could impact supply next week due to the closure of multiple product terminals, delayed tanker deliveries, and pipeline disruptions. According to CCTV news, the defense minister's statement about strikes on Iran being "lethal, precise, and unexpected" keeps investors on high alert.

Natural Gas: The November natural gas futures in the United States closed down by 2.12%, at 2.6750 USD per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

WTI crude oil returned above 76 USD.

A weakening US labor market strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for gold prices. Spot gold reached a high of over 0.9% during trading, surpassing 2,630 USD, ending six consecutive days of decline. Spot silver rose by more than 2.2%, ending three consecutive days of decline. All industrial metals in London rebounded:Gold: COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.81% at $2,647.3 per ounce. Spot gold continued to rise, reaching a high of over 0.9% at the end of the day, surpassing $2,630.

Silver: COMEX December silver futures closed up 2.1% at $31.375 per ounce. Spot silver continued to rise, reaching a high of over 2.2% during the US stock market lunchtime, approaching $31.20.

London base metals across the board rose: The economic indicator "Doctor Copper" closed up $48, at $9,723 per ton. LME lead closed up $4. LME zinc closed up 2.19%. LME aluminum closed up 1.77%. LME tin closed up $322. LME nickel closed up $170.

Spot gold reached a high of over 0.9%, surpassing $2,630 during the session.

Below is the content updated before 23:00 on October 10th:

US inflation remains stubborn, significantly reducing expectations for interest rate cuts. Both the overall CPI and core CPI for September exceeded expectations. However, the US labor market slows down, with the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5th reaching 258,000, soaring to the highest level in over a year.

After the data was released, all three major US stock market indices fell during the early trading session:

All three major US stock market indices fell: The S&P 500 index fell nearly 0.5% at one point. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, fell more than 0.3% at one point. The Nasdaq, which is mostly technology stocks, fell nearly 0.8% at one point.The "Tech Seven Sisters" experienced mixed performances. Tesla once fell by more than 3.6%, with new products and technologies such as Robotaxi set to be unveiled at the "WE, ROBOT" conference. Apple once fell by more than 1%, Microsoft fell by more than 1% and then halved its decline, "Metaverse" Meta once fell by nearly 0.8%, Google A fell by more than 0.9% and then rose by nearly 0.5%, Amazon once rose by more than 1.6%, and Nvidia fell by more than 1% and then rose by more than 1%.

Most chip stocks fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once fell by more than 1.8%. Qualcomm once fell by nearly 2.9%, ASML once fell by nearly 2.9%, Arm Holdings once fell by nearly 2.3%, Broadcom once fell by more than 1.8%, while Micron Technology once rose by more than 1.4%.

AI concept stocks saw more declines than gains. Super Micro Computer once fell by more than 6.1%, C3.ai once fell by more than 4%, Oracle once fell by more than 1.8%, Palantir once fell by more than 1.4%, Serve Robotics once fell by more than 5.8%, while Snowflake once rose by more than 3.2%, Dell Technologies once rose by more than 1.2%, and SoundHound AI, an AI voice company with Nvidia holdings, once rose by more than 0.6%.

Chinese concept stocks were almost flat. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by more than 0.8% and then rose by more than 0.1%, and the 3x Leveraged FTSE China ETF-Direxion rose by more than 5.1% at the beginning and then narrowed its gains. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tiger Brokers once fell by more than 8.2%, NetEase once fell by more than 2%, Mengniu Dairy ADR once fell by more than 2%, Ji氪 once fell by more than 2.3%, Li Auto once fell by more than 4.8%, Pinduoduo once fell by nearly 2.4%, while XPeng Motors rose by more than 4.5% and then narrowed its gains, Ctrip rose by more than 5.1% at the beginning, and Fangdd once rose by nearly 16.5%.

Bitcoin broke below the $60,000 mark.

[The following content was updated before 21:50]

On Thursday, October 10th, the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations, marking a temporary halt in the recent progress of easing price pressures in the United States. U.S. stock index futures briefly touched intraday lows on Thursday, triggering market concerns that the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut interest rates as much as traders hope.

Market concerns about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East put pressure on the stock market. In addition, investors are preparing for the third-quarter earnings season.

Mabrouk Chetouane, Global Market Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, said in a phone call: "We have many risks in front of us, the global situation is not very optimistic, a bit pessimistic, and I think the market is really in a wait-and-see mode."U.S. stocks opened with all three major indices falling. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.39%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.22%.

Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose. Alibaba increased by over 1%, while XPeng Motors and Ctrip both rose by more than 4%.

European stocks showed mixed performance. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.25%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.11%, and the German DAX 30 index dropped by 0.24%.

Some popular Chinese concept stocks were on the rise. New Oriental increased by nearly 2%, and XPeng Motors rose by over 3%.

Spot gold fluctuated. It is currently reported at $2,616.52 per ounce.

Oil prices increased. Brent crude is now quoted at $73.81 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also reported at $73.81 per barrel.

[Updated at 21:35]

The U.S. September CPI data exceeded expectations, indicating that the recent process of inflation decline has been hindered. Upon the opening of U.S. stocks, the Nasdaq Composite initially fell by 0.39%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.22%.

Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Alibaba increasing by over 1%, and XPeng Motors and Ctrip both rising by more than 4%.

Delta Air Lines fell by 1.3% at the start of trading, as the company's third-quarter financial report did not meet expectations.【Updated at 20:55】

Following the release of CPI data, the 2-year Treasury yield fell to an intraday low, driving the curve to steepen again after the data release; the 2-year yield fell by as much as 5 basis points for the day, while the 30-year Treasury yield remained near its intraday high.

International oil prices rose sharply, with both WTI and Brent crude oil increasing by 2% during the day, currently trading at $73.81 per barrel and $77.81 per barrel, respectively.

【Updated at 20:43】

U.S. stock index futures extended losses, with Nasdaq 100 index futures down 0.6%; S&P 500 index futures down 0.4%.

【Updated at 20:36】

Non-U.S. currencies普遍走强, the euro against the U.S. dollar fluctuated by 40 points in a short span, currently trading at 1.0935; the British pound against the U.S. dollar fluctuated by 60 points in a short span, currently trading at 1.3078; the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen fluctuated by over 100 points in a short span, currently trading at 148.62.

【Updated at 20:35】

The U.S. CPI data was announced, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, with a core monthly increase of 0.3%. The three major U.S. stock index futures fell sharply in the short term, with Nasdaq futures down 0.28% for the day, S&P 500 index futures down 0.14%, and Dow futures down 0.11%; the U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply in the short term, turning negative at one point during the day.

【Updated at 18:35】Stock index futures decline, with Dow futures down 0.11%, S&P futures down approximately 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.20%.

Chinese concept stocks show mixed performance before the market opens, with New Oriental up nearly 2% and XPeng Motors up over 3%.

Oil prices extend gains, with Brent crude currently at $77.74 per barrel and U.S. crude at $73.71 per barrel.

Spot gold continues to fluctuate, currently at $2,616.52 per ounce.

【Updated at 16:25】

European stocks show mixed performance, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.25%, the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.11%, and Germany's DAX 30 index down 0.24%. Banking stocks perform well, while the technology sector lags behind.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is the top gainer after the company said it would pay up to $2.2 billion to settle U.S. court cases related to its Zantac drug.

Deutsche Telekom's shares rise after the company announced a share buyback plan of up to €2 billion by 2025.

【Updated at 16:14】

Before the U.S. market opens, all three major U.S. stock index futures decline, with Dow futures down 0.13%, S&P futures down approximately 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.15%.Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose. Alibaba increased by nearly 1%, Xiaopeng Motors rose by more than 3%, and Ctrip increased by nearly 4%.

Tesla increased by 0.66%.

Spot gold fluctuated, currently at $2,614.41 per ounce.

Oil prices rose, with Brent crude currently at $77.12 per barrel, and US crude at $73.10 per barrel.

The US dollar index remained almost unchanged, currently at 102.93.